Who will head Hamas? Yahya Sinwar’s brother on list of successors

The death of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, who has been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza, raises many questions about the future of the Israel-Hamas war, but the most burning question is — who will be the new Hamas chief? The answer to this is vital as it would not only decide the course of Hamas, a terrorist-political outfit in Gaza, but could also the situation in the Middle East.
The Israel Defense Forces has declared that Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7 massacre in Israel, has been killed in a routine Israeli operation.
Sinwar was unyielding in the matters of a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, and his death has led many experts to believe that this could be an opportunity for negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
This, however, will depend on who takes over Hamas after Sinwar.
Some leading men from the ranks of Hamas are being discussed.
A potential successor could be Yahya’s brother. Mohammed, 49, is one of the top commanders of the military wing of Hamas.
General Amir Avivi, chairman of Bitchonistim (security experts) spoke to the Israeli daily, Maariv, on Sinwar’s death.
“So even if Sinwar has been, or will be, taken out, unless his brother and two or three other central figures are also eliminated, breaking Hamas’ hierarchical structure will be difficult,” said Avivi when Israel was still confirming the death of Sinwar.
Avivi also discussed how Yahya’s brother was also responsible for the capturing of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and no prisoner exchange would have taken place without his release. Over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including Yahya Sinwar, were released in exchange for Shalit’s freedom in 2011.
Mohammed Sinwar, like his brother Yahya, is another top target of Israel. He has also survived several attempts to kill him.
But his appointment could mean a continuation of Yahya Sinwar’s style of leadership where hardliners focus on extreme violence.
Hayya is a member of Hamas’ political bureau in Qatar and is a lead negotiator of ceasefire discussions in Doha. He lives in Qatar. He was also Yahya Sinwar’ deputy.
Even in July, when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed, al-Hayya was seen as a potential successor.
He had said in April Hamas would keep down its weapons and become a political party if a truce of five years and an independent Palestinian state is formed, reported the Associated Press.
He survived an airstrike on his home in Gaza in 2007, which led to the death of several members of his family.
Zahar is one of the founding members of Hamas and has been termed as “hawkish” and “socially conservative”, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Zahar was a doctor in Gaza and engaged in medical charity.
He was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in 2006 and became the first foreign minister after Hamas’s electoral win in the same year.
He survived assassination attempts by Israel in 1992 and 2003.
Zahar has made no appearance since October 7, according to Reuters.
Marzouk helped in the creation of the Muslim Brotherhood that later formed Hamas. He is the top member of Hamas’ political bureau.
In the 1990s, he was charged by Israel for planning and funding terrorist activities, the New York Times reported.
He later went to the US where he rallied support for the Palestinian cause.
He had to agree to give up his permanent residency in the US and not challenge the terrorism charges after being in prison for two years in Manhattan jail in the 1990s.
Then, he was deported to Jordan.
Mashal was the overall leader of political office in 1996. Two years later, he was injected with slow poison by Israel in Jordan, which put him in a coma and the antidote was provided by Israel as a part of a diplomatic deal with Jordan, reported The New York Times.
He lived in Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and Syria. When he left political office in 2017, Ismail Haniyeh took over.
But he might not be as likely a choice as he had supported an uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Ashad, which caused an issue with patron Iran, according to CNN.
He lived in the Hamas headquarters in Qatar. Here the exiled leader was interviewed by Reuters.
“Palestinian history is made of cycles,” the 68-year-old said. “We go through phases where we lose martyrs, and we lose part of our military capabilities, but then the Palestinian spirit rises again, like the phoenix, thanks to God,” he said.
Yahya Sinwar had a tight control over Hamas despite the Palestinian outfit being plagued by factionalism. He also built and grew Hamas into the force that it is today. That is why who is his successaor determines how things progress from here. While there is no confirmation from Hamas on who the new leader would be, the whole world is waiting and watching for the person who would be playing a key role in determining the future of the Israel-Hamas war.